Week Six: TSA in Crisis, FEMA Under Court Order, and $65 Billion in Contracts Nobody Can See

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Dhs Shutdown And Fema

The shutdown is now in its sixth week with no resolution. The House passed HR 7744 (221-209), but the Senate cannot clear 60 votes. TSA callouts hit 10.16% nationwide on Wednesday, five times the normal rate. Houston Hobby: 40.8%. Atlanta: 37-38%. New Orleans: 36%. Three of six Philadelphia checkpoints closed. Over 300 officers have quit. TSA warned some airports may be forced to close.

Mullin's DHS confirmation hearing on March 18 was combative. Paul confronted him on temperament and "stolen valor," but the committee advanced him 8-7 (Paul sole R "no," Fetterman sole D "yes"). Full Senate vote possible next week. A new secretary cannot end the shutdown without an appropriations bill.

FEMA announced March 18 it will relaunch the BRIC hazard mitigation grants program ahead of a court deadline, but conspicuously did not reference the court ruling. The NOFO timeline: "in the weeks and months ahead." Nearly 2,000 projects totaling $4.5 billion were affected by the original cancellation. This is a documented, court-ordered receivable, but do not expect fast disbursement from a shuttered, understaffed agency.

WEXMAC-TITUS, the rewritten military contracting vehicle now expanded to DHS, has grown to a $65 billion ceiling with 140 contractors and $38.3 billion from DHS. Two Pennsylvania warehouse sites purchased for ICE facilities (Berks County at $87.4 million, Schuylkill County at $119.5 million) have no published contracts. PA DEP issued five administrative orders blocking occupancy. Maryland AG lawsuit pending. Fueled by $45 billion from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," this is one of the largest federal procurement pipelines in DHS history.

The Iran war continues to escalate: 7,000+ targets struck, 120+ Iranian ships neutralized, A-10 Warthogs in the Strait of Hormuz, and a $200 billion supplemental floated to replenish munitions. The DHS implication is direct. The agency responsible for domestic counterterrorism during an active war remains unfunded and leaderless.

Build America Bureau And Usdot

Gateway's Hudson Tunnel construction continues on a two-to-three month runway using $235 million in court-ordered funds. TBM assembly is underway, but the two largest procurements remain on hold until GDC accesses all $15 billion in paused grants and loans. Portal North Bridge opened its first track March 16, a $1.8 billion milestone.

The BAB pipeline shows approximately $20.79 billion in TIFIA/RRIF letters of interest. Colorado's I-70 Floyd Hill dropped. IIJA expires September 30, 2026. The Consolidated Appropriations Act zeroed out SMART grants ($200 million+) and cut $800 million+ from NEVI. Reauthorization draft expected March or April.

Usda And Rural Development

The Farm Bill cleared committee 34-17 and heads to the House floor before Easter. The bill allocates $390 billion over ten years. Key provisions include REAP loan guarantees up to $50 million, broadband minimum speeds raised to 50/25 Mbps, and farm ownership loans increased to $1.75 million. The 2018 Farm Bill extension expires September 30, the same deadline as IIJA, creating a dual policy cliff.

Baltimore Bridge Collapse Gives Small Business…

Surety State of the Market

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P3 And Infrastructure Finance

PennDOT is evaluating four unsolicited P3 proposals, led by Cintra's $5 billion I-76 Schuylkill Expressway Managed Lanes. The BAB's VfM guidance now requires every P3 seeking TIFIA/RRIF to complete a two-stage analysis. Private activity bond demand has nearly reached the $30 billion federal cap. NCDOT's $4.3 billion I-77 South P3 remains in extended community engagement, with the draft RFP pushed to late June.

Doe And Energy Infrastructure

DOE's $1.9 billion SPARK grid program is the largest single-round GRIP deployment to date. Concept papers due April 2. Full applications May 20. Three topic areas: Grid Resilience ($427 million FY 2026), Smart Grid, and Grid Innovation.

UPRISE targets 2.5 GW of nuclear capacity by 2027 and 5 GW by 2029. Key restarts: Palisades (MI, $1.52B DOE loan), Crane Clean Energy Center (PA, $1B DOE loan, Microsoft PPA), and Duane Arnold (IA, NextEra/Google PPA). Palisades delayed by unauthorized welding. NRC review targeting April 8.

EDF restructured $83 billion in Biden-era loans, shifting $9.5 billion from wind/solar to gas and nuclear. EDF retains $289 billion in remaining authority. The Southern Company $26.54 billion loan sets the benchmark. The lending thesis: baseload generation, grid hardening, nuclear.

What This Means For Borrowers

1. DHS shutdown Week Six: TSA quitting, FEMA paralyzed, counterterrorism unfunded during a war. Bridge capital against documented receivables is the only viable liquidity path.
2. BRIC relaunch creates a court-ordered receivable class. $4.5 billion in projects are now a documented federal obligation. Do not wait for FEMA to staff up.
3. WEXMAC-TITUS is the largest federal procurement pipeline most borrowers have never heard of. $65 billion ceiling, 140 contractors, no published contracts for $207 million in PA sites. Legal challenges create payment risk. Bridge financing against WEXMAC task orders is directly in our wheelhouse.
4. DOE is the most aggressive federal lender in the country. SPARK concept papers due April 2. The thesis: gas, nuclear, grid hardening. ABC provides bridge financing to energy infrastructure borrowers positioning for DOE credit.
5. Three cliffs converge: Farm Bill, IIJA reauthorization (both Sept. 30), and an indefinite DHS shutdown. Nearly $21 billion in TIFIA/RRIF LOIs in the pipeline. The highest federal funding uncertainty in a generation. Position capital now.